Citation laureates receive Nobel prizes

 
December 2008

Citation analysis correctly predicted this year’s Nobel Prize winners in Chemistry, Economics and Physiology or Medicine.

Each year, analysis of ISI Web of KnowledgeSM data is used to quantitatively determine the most influential researchers in the Nobel categories of Chemistry, Economics, Physics, and Physiology or Medicine. High-impact researchers, measured using the total number of citations to their works, are named Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates and predicted to be Nobel Prize winners—either that year or in the future.

We have correctly predicted at least one Nobel Laureate this way every year since 1989. In some years — 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2008 — our Citation Laureates received their Nobel prizes in the year they were named. In 2006, we predicted two Nobel Prize winners (in Physics and Physiology or Medicine) that went on to be awarded in 2007. This year, the Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates in Chemistry, Economics, and Physiology or Medicine also received 2008 Nobel Prizes:

  • Chemistry: This year's Chemistry award went to Roger Tsien, Osamu Shimomura and Martin Chalfie
  • Medicine: Luc Montagnier, winner of the prize in medicine, has long been on our list of probable winners: Montagnier was named a Citation Laureate in 1989 for his work on the AIDS virus
  • Economics: The Prize for Economics recognized the work of Paul Krugman for his theories of international trade and analysis of geography in economic transactions

“Our successful predictions illustrate how Web of Science covers the most significant scientific research in all disciplines, across all time spans,” said David Pendlebury, Research Services, Thomson Reuters. “Our prediction method, using citation counts as its fundamental point of departure, has over the years proven to be an accurate measure of research success and of Nobelists-to-be.”

The Thomson Reuters quantitative approach to predicting Nobel Prizes has been widely reported in publications such as USA Today, New York Times, Newsweek and International Herald Tribune.

More about the methodology behind our predictions, and past and present winners

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