Made in China – a glimpse into the future of patent information
Thomson Reuters
July 2008
Something's going on in China. From humble beginnings, an inexorable momentum of innovation is building. If current trends continue within the major patenting countries of the world, China is set to dominate the patent information landscape. This article takes a look at current patent trends and speculates about how the world of patent information will look in five years time.
Looking backwards
An analysis of patent volumes from five of the major patenting regions in the world shows a clear picture over the last five years: inventions from China have been growing at a faster rate than any other region and that growth looks set to continue into the future.
There are several attributes that can be measured to identify and track innovation trends in a particular region:
- Total volume of patents: This gives a measure of the total patenting activity in a region which involves two aspects — those inventions patented first in a region (basics) and those other inventions for which protection is sought to manufacture, use or sell the invention or products in the region (equivalents). The proportion of basics to equivalents is broadly an indication of the ratio of inventiveness of a region compared to how attractive it is perceived to be as a market by both homegrown and external industry
- The volume of basics: This gives a clearer measure of home grown innovation by providing a measure of how many inventions are patented first in the region
- The volume of patents claiming priority in the region: This is the clearest measure of innovation originating from a region. Under standard patent convention, an applicant filing for patent protection in one country has a further twelve months in which to apply for protection of that invention in other countries, while still being able to claim the original filing date (important for establishing novelty). The initial filing country will most often be the country in which the invention was made and therefore this country will be identified as the priority country. Analysis of the priority country therefore provides a close measure of innovation from that country.
Using data from Derwent World Patents Index®, the trends in patenting according to these measures are given for five key patenting regions: Japan (JP), United States (US), Korea (KR), China (CN) and Europe (EP ).
Fig 1: Total patent volumes 2001 to 2007
Japan has the highest total patent volumes year on year over the period 2001-2007, but is being caught up by the US1. Europe and Korea have similar volumes and growth trends. The striking difference amongst these regions is China — from humble beginnings, it is experiencing the most rapid growth in total patent volumes which looks set to continue into the future.
Fig 2: Basic patent volumes 2001 to 2007
Overall volumes for basics are lower than the total volumes above, although still numbering hundreds of thousand of inventions each year. Volumes for Japan although highest overall are slowly reducing. US once again has growth in volumes that are steadily approaching and set to surpass those of Japan going forwards. Volumes of basics for Korea are higher than for Europe. Once again, we see China exhibit strong growth moving from last position in this group to third over the period surpassing both Europe and Korea.
The proportion of basics to total patent volumes indicates patenting practice within the region — the higher the proportion, broadly the more filings by domestic concerns compared to external enterprises. The comparison in given here:
Fig 3: Proportion of basics to total patent volumes 2001 to 2007
Japan shows a high proportion of basics to total patents, indicating a predominance of filings by domestic concerns. This shows a marked shift over time with basics forming just under 50 per cent of the total Japanese patents in 2007 compared to around 65 per cent in 2001.
By contrast, the proportion of basics in China is growing steadily from under 30 per cent in 2001 to just over 40 per cent in 2007. This indicates a growth in filing by domestic concerns compared to external enterprises.
Fig 4: Priority country volumes 1999 to 2005
The clearest measure of innovation within a region is given by looking at priority country information for inventions. This gives the closest link to the country of origin of the invention. Under patent convention, patent applications are published 18 months after priority filing. For this reason, analysis of priority information is time shifted to 18 months earlier (or two years in round numbers). Hence priority country volumes for the period 1999 to 2005 are given.
Similar trends are observed again in that Japan has highest volumes, which are slowly decreasing; US has increased in volume to approach that of Japan, and China shows strong growth again from a small base. Interestingly, Korea shows somewhat stronger growth in this analysis compared to total volumes or basic volumes.
Looking forwards
Given the trends observed here, it is impossible to resist a bit of crystal-ball gazing and to speculate about which countries will occupy which positions in the not too distant future. Although strictly a mathematical exercise, it is interesting to observe the predictions on this basis.
Looking at total patent volumes, we can see that the US is set to surpass Japan in 2009. China is set to surpass firstly Japan in 2011, and then the US in 2014, to take top slot followed by the US in second place, Japan by then having slipped to third place.
Fig 5: Projected total patent volumes
The predictions from looking at volumes of basic patents projected into the future are broadly similar although the timescale is somewhat shorter. Again, US is set to overtake Japan in 2009, but here China surpasses first Japan again a year earlier in 2010, and then the US two years earlier in 2012.
Fig 6: Projected volumes of basic patents
Finally, looking at priority information (and remembering that this is time-shifted by two years so that we should add two years to the dates given in the chart), we see a similar pattern with the US passing Japan in 2011 (2009+2) and China (having overtaken Korea already) going on to pass both Japan and the US to secure top slot in 2012 (2010+2).
Fig 7: Projected numbers of priority patent applications
Conclusion
Although of course these predictions are just mathematical projections, the inescapable fact is that Chinese patents are here to stay in a big way and will continue to grow in importance going into the future. How the information industry, both from the information provider's and the patent information professional's points of view, will address the challenge of vast volumes of non-Roman character patent information in the future is the subject of keen debate and much activity right now.
References
1. The large growth in volume of US patents from 2001 to 2002 may be explained by a change in US law at this time allowing publication of patent applications 18 months after filing where previously publication only occurred on grant of a patent. A proportion only of applications proceed to grant — those that were not granted would hitherto have been invisible.